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isn't quite ashamed enough to present

jr conlin's ink stained banana

:: Goin’ Solar

Recently, i had solar installed on my roof. It’s not a huge system, but it covers my average daily need of about 4KWh. It cost me about what a brand new economy car would have, and i understand that i’m in a fairly privileged position, both in the ability to have solar panels installed, and the ability to afford them.

The reason was pretty simple: my electric power rates had hiked up in the past few years and i expected to be at home a bit more. If i could reduce that cost down, there’s no reason i shouldn’t. There are other reasons i considered them, like the fact that i live in earthquake country and having panels means that i’d have some power available 1, and the panels would provide some shade to keep my metal roof from overheating2, but honestly, not forking over $100+ a month was really the major draw.

And, yeah, i get that i’m late to the game on this. i’m ok with that. Cutting edge tech on these sorts of things is foolish. You want something that’s had the kinks worked out and is reliable as hell for the 30+ years they’ll be running.

So, i find it kinda hilarious that there’s a growing backlash about roof top solar.

Part of the problem is that power companies built way the heck too much generation capacity. i can’t really fault them, Natural Gas is cheap thanks to the current glut, and not a lot of folks saw the residential solar panel growth happening the 10 or so years ago that these plants were authorized. Still, residential solar is a fraction of the power generated daily. It does, however, mean that the return on all those bright, shiny, and new power plants won’t be quite as great and it’ll take a few more years before they become profitable. Hooray! Power is a commodity and subject to supply and demand.

Which kinda leads to the next point. Residential power generation is kind of a fluke. Let’s ignore solar, and say that i’ve somehow created a tiny universe filled with residents who step on pedals in order to provide me Watts to spare. In the era before smart meters, i’d plug that in and the analog meter would literally run backwards. The power company would come by every month, read the meter, and wonder how to deal with consuming negative KWh. The simple solution, because not a lot of folks were creating tiny power-plant universes, was to just credit at the same rate they charged and move on. Some months i’d owe, others i’d collect as i fed the excess power back into the grid for my neighbors to use.

This is because the grid doesn’t really care where the power comes from, just that it’s there. It could come from coal plants, gas, wind-turbines, really anything that can send electrons along a path at the proper AC frequency.

So, i’m a little confused by articles like this which state:

Utilities argue that rules allowing private solar customers to sell excess power back to the grid at the retail price — a practice known as net metering — can be unfair to homeowners who do not want or cannot afford their own solar installations.

Uhm, what? They’re using power, from the grid. The same grid i’m feeding. They’re writing the same check, just that the power company is acting as a broker rather than the generator.

What’s more, i was required by the power company to install a “smart meter”. Meaning that unlike the analog predecessor, this sucker knows exactly when and how much i am either using or contributing. This means that i could be charged/credited fairly accurately, based off 15 minute increments over the course of the day. Since folks in my neighborhood have been told they’ll be hit with a $120 annual fine if they refuse getting smart meters, i’m guessing that it’s just a matter of time before even the most ardent folks concede and get one. So, yeah, the power company has/will have a stunningly accurate accounting of power patterns for this locale, minus some of the fun of long lines and massive substations.

So, you know what? i’m also 100% ok with not getting residential power prices for the power i’m generating. Yeah, it means that it’ll take longer before my system “pays for itself”, but as stated above, not really the goal. Plus, i know some folks with hilariously huge arrays on their roofs will be pissed, but just like the power company and their now less useful LP plants, Welcome to commodity based markets, bitches!


1So, yeah, fun fact. Solar needs to be able to sense the grid to operate. Otherwise they shut off because they don’t want to barbecue linesmen that might be working on the outage. You can solve that with a battery, but most of those are crap right now so not happening for a few years.

2It’s not a lot, but i’ll take what i can.

  1. iconophobia
    2017-07-11 09:13:54

    Net metering is unfair to non-producing consumers because they are forced to bear the cost of the grid, whereas the still-grid-attached and generally-still-grid-serviced (nights, cloudy days, or windless days for people with turbines) can "erase" their infrastructure costs. Infrastructure costs are typically more than generation costs at utility-scale.

    It's a bit like calling and asking the pizza delivery guy to come by and take a pizza you baked, for future credit later. And pay full price for the second one you baked.

    Net metering was intended to drive early adoption and avoid complicated metering and billing infrastructure on small producers but is past its... utility.


  2. jr
    2017-07-11 16:24:10

    Well, i've not seen my bill yet, but I'd be shocked if the various static fees charged for things like the Diablo Canyon Shutdown and other items are not included. The bulk of my bill was actual power costs, and I'd be 100% a-ok with paying those because they generally added up to less than $10 before. Heck, even if you overproduced you could deduct those fees from the payout and still come out even on the accounting.

    And, I still hold that net metering is mostly the product of utilities being lazy. They didn't want to try and work out the very fuzzy details about net consumption vs generation with analog meters, but that's pretty easy to do now. Again, I'm totally fine with the idea of getting "paid" on a generation schedule.

    Hell, just yesterday I got a flyer in the mail about how I could get $5K from the PUC toward getting a battery system installed just so I could go even further off grid. I'm guessing that would be worse for my neighbors because in that case I really could skip any form of payment of grid costs.


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:: The Process of Process

For a while, there was a fad for software engineers to rebel against “Process”.

They hated the fact that there were rules and procedures for things and wanted the freedom to make code. They wanted to run free among the linkers and cuddle up to garbage collectors, i presume.

Yeah, i wasn’t one of those types.

You see, i also cook. i understand that a good meal generally doesn’t happen by wandering into the kitchen and seeing what happens. It involves thinking about what meals you’re going to eat up to a week ago when you’re making a grocery list. It involves setting up a clean workspace, making sure tools are ready, and performing the steps. Mind you, while there’s some “drudgery”, it’s not much, and hey, there’s meat, fire & knives, so that’s a bonus.

But yeah, one of the keys of good, actually fun, cooking is that “organization will set you free”. Having ingredients ready to go when you need them is amazing. Pinch dishes are cheap as hell and make your life so, so much better. (You can get dozens at the local Goodwill or Dollar Store for just a few bucks.)

So, yeah, it makes sense that you have some level of process for coding. You want to understand what you’re building, have the tools and tests set up, and then have check lists so you don’t forget something. Because if you don’t you ABSOLUTELY will forget something. Plus, having a checklist is one less thing to spend precious memory dealing with. Heck, pilots have lots of them, and frankly, they help them stay focused on, you know, flying.

Of course, no process is ever really finalized and all process is subject to review and updating. You should never have to fight a process, it should be smooth and nearly second nature. If a process doesn’t work, it should be changed.

Sorry, just spent some time creating some additional process in order to capture data that we were ignoring because we forgot to capture it.

Granted, getting folks to follow process is harder.

:: Trade Secrets

i like to come into work early. Occasionally, this means that i’m here when trade folk are doing repairs or otherwise making the workplace ready. It’s nice because it offers less distraction for both parties, normally.

This morning an apprentice and journeyman were inspecting some work on a segment of HVAC, and it was eye opening. The apprentice had come in the day before and done some work on a pump that was making noise, and asked the journeyman to stop by and inspect the work. The journeyman spotted a few problems, fixed an issue, and discussed things.

All the while the apprentice peppered the journeyman with questions like:
“Ok, so how did you spot that problem?”
“Was there a specific tool that could be used?”
“How would i get that tool?”
“Are there techniques that i can learn to help me spot that sort of thing?”

The journeyman gave him the answers without judgement in clear, straight-forward words. He noted that the problem was due to a confusing bit of wiring that had two similar colored links, with very different usage and admitted that it was an easy mistake to make. He offered a way to test, but noted that sometimes, “you make that mistake, so you have to come back, just make sure you schedule a follow up”.

The apprentice knew he didn’t understand, the journeyman knew he needed to teach. Even the extra stories told were all about the problem. They wrapped things up in about 10 minutes and left.

What i just witnessed was a properly done peer review/post-mortem along with a mentor program, and it made me realize something.

Computer science people absolutely suck at this.

Granted, CS has yet to become a proper trade. There’s no history of the sort of on-site training that actual tradesfolk have. In most cases, no company that is hiring an HVAC engineer or plumber will force that individual to sign an NDA requiring that they not plumb a different building the same way that they plumbed that particular building, nor am i aware of any IP restrictions on wiring a workspace, but the fundamentals should be the same. Honestly, there’s little reason why your mentor should work at the same place as you, or just be a single person. Peer reviews aren’t a pain in the ass, they’re opportunities to learn and teach, in both directions.

If you’re not critically evaluating your skills and tools every opportunity, are you really as certain that you have the best? Be proud of what you create, but be prouder of who you’ve helped. Likewise, be open to learning at every opportunity. If i was a “typical” computer nerd, i would have slapped on my headphones, lit up the laptop and tuned out the “distraction” of two workers dealing with some other problem.

And i would have missed learning something important.

:: Less Moore’s

There’s a possibly unwritten rule that tech professionals should replace their gear about every two years.

Hard drives (the spinny kind) are really only good for about 5 years, then they start to fail for various reasons. That’s an average based on general use, and i’ve found it to be true. Newer, solid state drives, probably ought to be replaced more often, but it really depends on how much info you write to them.

Likewise thanks to Moore’s Law, CPUs and graphics cards tend to get faster and more efficient with time. Well, generally, at least.

My home workstation is a 4 core 2.5GHz box with 12GB of memory, about 3TB of storage and dual monitors. It’s about 6 years old, and runs off a 250W power supply.

Recently, i spec’d out a replacement machine (which generally involves replacing everything) for about $2500 which was a 4 core 3.0GHz box with 16GB of memory. i’d move most of the storage over.

i’m not sure it’s worth upgrading.

For a significant cost, i’ll see a performance enhancement of about 17%. i’ll also have a box that uses more electricity (since the newer CPU and graphics cards will draw a lot more watts than my current rig does).

Yeah, so i won’t be able to play the latest 4K rendered shooter in near photo-realistic chicken blasting detail. i also don’t need a car that can do 200MPh at the Nuremberg ring, either.

i’m not quite sure i know how to feel about this. i may swap out the graphics card in my box, but that will probably come with replacing the monitors with something better than the pair of 21″ 1900×1200 i’ve got now, that i still need glasses to read. There’s really no reason to change them out.

Granted, i run linux at home because that’s what i generally tend to work in, and support for the newest, most lunatic graphics cards tends to be… iffy… at best. i suppose it’s a lovely way to keep me from building some insane rig so i can play Beat Hazard Ultra, but that’s my call.

Am i getting old or has the return on Moore’s Law not really kept pace?

Sigh. i should know myself better by now. Just dropped a wad on a bunch of components for a new system. Expect ranty build screed in a week or so.

:: Fuck it.

Right. So, the assholes have won.

Doesn’t matter where you are, because there’s a lot of assholes and they’ve managed to win. In many respects, i should be proud of them. They’ve worked long and hard to get to the top. They’ve been determined and focused and frankly, it’s paid off for them. So, yeah, now they get to do their happy dances and tell the rest of the world to “Suck it up, buttercup!”

They’re in charge.

Let’s be clear. The assholes didn’t win by fluke. It wasn’t just random chance. It was effort that was spent over the last 30 years or so. In the case of the US, this was an entire generation spent planning their win. This was a long game that started after Reagan (yeah, wasn’t a fan then, not a fan now). Still, while family farms failed and we held mega concerts to bail them out, and his cabinet introduced supply side economics that pretty much got the whole wealth inequity business off like a rocket, and we spent insane money on woo-woo defense projects, he was built up as a minor god.

Don’t get me wrong. i benefited from the Reagan years. My family was doing defense contracting in those years and Reagan basically paid for my college years and my parents retirement. But the way he ended the Cold War was to make Russia realize there was no way in hell they could out-spend us. Wonder why our debt is still insanely high? Hi, mister Reagan!

And this is where i point out that all the Gen X folk who’ve been so damn quiet fit rather nicely into that 30 year generation. Behold, the fruits of their labor. Behold the generation of helicopter parents that gave us the “Participation Trophies” we all derided. Behold the (confederate) flag wavin’, “i ain’t PC”, Reagan worshipers who have given us the Alt-Right. Behold the generation that found “Long Duk Dong” hi-larious.

So, instead of following more fantasies about how “we can correct this problem”, screw it. Look, these folks wanted to burn down “the system”. They’re not reasonable. They don’t think about long term consequences, only the concept of “winning”. They are 100% sure they’re being totally rational and justified in being horrible to other humans because They Won.

So, what can we expect? Well, presume unemployment will go up, particularly in media organizations. These include things like the Internet. If you’ve not already carved out your multi-billion dollar homestead on the digital frontier, expect that it’ll be shut down either by competition, regulation, or just relegated to the dustbin. “Fake News” will be anything that deviates from the declared narrative, so “independent” sites will get shut down fairly regularly.

Oh, yeah, don’t expect to be able to use Tor, Signal or VPNs. Those will be filtered by either Comcast or AT&T for any number of reasons. (i had originally said “Your ISP”, but yeah, who’s kidding anyone?) Why wouldn’t you want to use your daily Facebook Allowance, citizen?

Protesting? Yeah, that won’t really make a difference either. Nobody will notice because the assholes won’t talk about it or let anyone know. How much discussion was there about what happened in North Dakota? (And don’t even think that’s actually over and done, yet.) Heck, these are folks who think the Chinese have the right idea. You might feel good about yourself or even take some level of pride in the idea that you were arrested for “Standing Up”. When historians discover your actions in 75 years, i expect that they’ll probably note it.

Expect whatever money you have to go away. You’ll have income, and might even get a stipend, but then, so did the peasants, so at least there’s a precedent, but unless you’ve got a few tens of millions readily available, you’re not livin’ in the manor house. What income you have will be lost to inflation, health care, and the like.

Granted, now’s a pretty awful time to buy up beach real estate, but a fantastic time to sell it, but you already knew that.

Frankly, if you want to see what things are going to be like, just look to Poland.

So, what to do?

Well, for one, i plan on trying to continue to act much like i had. i’m nice to people mostly for selfish reasons. (i like to be around happy people.) “Weirdos” and “Freaks” are more interesting than assholes, so i’ll prefer and promote their company when possible. i’ll secure my information as best i can for the same reasons i’ve done it for years. i’ll generally pay cash for things, use bogus affiliate information, and reduce my footprint as much as possible. i’ll watch news from other countries because the assholes they suck up to are different than the assholes here.

i’ll use various forms of encryption for stuff i give a crap about, and anything really important gets put on paper, only. If i have something crucial to tell someone, i’ll make sure that i either tell them directly (face to face) or use a trusted agent. Like i’ve done for years. Turns out, there’s centuries of rules and protocol around real, paper documents that hasn’t reflected into digital ones. Plus, message encryption is pretty good.

i plan on having fun trying to find ways to turn the system on itself. Assholes have proven that they can be played like those wind-up monkeys with cymbals. Just need to find the right keys to let ’em go. Unsubstantiated rumor that aligns with most of their core beliefs with just enough subversion to cast doubt seems like a pretty good, well trod road. Bet it might be useful in the wrong hands.

i am absolutely not giving in to hope. Hope is a drug that keeps you from acting. No need to go full Nihilist, but it’s important to separate wishful thinking from reality. Best to plan for the worst and enjoy the delightful surprise the rare times you’re wrong. Know what does work? Anger. The driving desire to make people as miserable as they are intent to do to you. Frustrate them at every opportunity. Make them angry. Use that anger against themselves. Call ’em “Liberals” because they are about as far from real, honest Conservatism than you can unreasonably get. (They’re defending Russia and China? The birthplace of communism? Where Big Government is absolutely the rule? Shut up you liberal idiot.)

Best thing to do is be an asshole to assholes. Find ways to ruin their fun. Delight in pointing out when things go horribly wrong for them, because assholes don’t understand empathy, science or really anything other than reaction, so yeah, things are going to go horribly wrong. i have no interest in being “better than them” or “an example they can learn from”. i’ve been down that road. Doesn’t happen. When their crops fail or wells get poisoned, they need to just “Suck it up, Buttercup. Your side won.”

Blogs of note
personal Christopher Conlin USMC memoirs of hydrogen guy rhapsodic.org Henriette's Herbal Blog
geek ultramookie

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