On the drive in, i was thinking more and more about Jeremy's post and the whole social networking thing, and honestly, i'm not really sure i get it.
Pagerank is relatively simple enough to factor because it's merely the page with the most similar incoming links. Yes, there are other highly spoofable factors involved too, but that one is hands down the biggest, and is well proven.
Social networks don't work that way, and the best way to symbolize that is to draw the best corollary i can think of, a high school lunch room.
First off, most of the popular kids are popular because they're popular (a feat of recursive logic one only finds in social networks). This is also played out in blogs. If you were plotting out the masses, you'd have to discount that group solely because of the high level of noise. If you asked every single kid in the lunchroom, 80% of them would say they were a friend of the popular kids. The problem is that the popular kids couldn't pick out 80% of their classmates if they all shared an elevator.
At the other end of the spectrum would be the unpopular kids. These by nature or nurture are going to be the anti-social types. Granted, anti-social types don't blog. There's something about being an introvert that precludes the idea of posting up a "Hey! Look at me!" page. Granted, there are a few that will probably turn on the web-cams, and while that may rocket them past the popular kids in terms of social standing (at least with the male portion of the lunch room), it still puts them in the high noise category.
So that leaves the bulk of the unwashed. The continuance of the blurry characters walking around Dawson Creek.
The thing is that friendships and allegiances change for that group. Let's say that i come out and say that my friends include: Steve, Jeremy, Michael, and JIM. i'm willing to bet that Steve would agree to this, Jeremy might (provided he'd been drinking), Michael would probably say that i'm a nice guy and all, but he's not posting bail, and JIM would probably say nothing mostly because he's busy writing papers.
Now factor in folks like Matt and Justin, both of whom i've done stuff for and whom i'd happily by rounds for at the pub, who i've just forgotten to add to my list, now feel jaded and go off to sulk in the corner because the need/want exposure. Then factor in other folks who i don't know who link to me, folks i link to for personal political gain and have no intention of ever linking back, very good friends who are anti-social, and countless other messy details.
Suddenly, the value of the social network kinda falls dramatically if i'm a person/company wanting to mine it for usefully data. In effect, i'd probably have better luck simply spidering the pages looking for contact information, just like spammers do now. (And, likewise, my sales pitches would probably have the same level of acceptance, with the notable exclusion that when all the above folks start getting low cost penile mortgage enhancement ads (with two weeks free supply of all natural Viagral) specifying me as the "friend" that recommended them, i'm betting that my "friendship" will probably end with a bunch of them.
Plus, what would happen if i were to express my concern that someone might steal Jeremy's cat, and the best way for me to solve that problem would be to dye the cat purple and shave Jeremy's initials onto the sides. This too, might cause Jeremy to not only refuse to pay my hospital bills and acquire a restraining order, but remove me from his friends list. i would still have him on my list, however, and since there's a level of legacy that has built up over time, how would that sudden disjoin be resolved? Would each friend reference be validated at the time it's required? Would it mean that Jeremy is constantly reminded of the fact in addition to his cat breaking down in howling sobs whenever Barney came on TV?
It's fun for folks (ok, engineers) to try and fit algorithms to everything. The problem with social networking though, is the fact that sociologists don't even clearly understand how they work.
Still, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
