So, there are a bunch of articles out talking about how blogging isn't taking the 'net by storm, that most folks start a blog, then give up, that folks generally tend to blog frequently, then trickle out, that most readers are already friends or family, that bloggers, blah, blah, blah.
To be honest, i'm not surprised. Bloggers are usually geeks, and therefore mostly their own best cheerleaders. Let's take a few steps back and put down our own personal exhaust pipes, shall we?
1. Self Publication.
i am a "Used Slurpee Cup" Level blogger. One so far down on the list that i don't even get a letter. i'll never have a audience in the millions thousands tens, and i know that the big reason for that is because i don't go on and on about {$politicalFigure} or {$socialTrend} or bang the drum endlessly about {$technology}. So it's not like i'm going to build up an audience by being consistent about a given topic. Successful "A-List" blogs are more like magazines than blogs, really. They offer a series of articles about a singular topic with occasional forays into the lesser unknown. That and they tend to come from folks with multiple avenues of notoriety (e.g. pre-existing authors/ lecturers, principle engineers, etc. All things i'm generally not)
That's fine. Taking that same model, i'd note that beside those big name magazines, there are plenty of smaller ones that cater to niche audiences. Mine would probably be the fresh from Kinko's 'zine stuck behind the out of date copies of Cat Fancy.
Even the most popular blogs will never replace mainstream publications. Sorry, but not only do they have the drop on blogs by about 300 years, they also tend to have other distinct advantages that blogs never will, e.g. portability and fish wrap. (well, not until they perfect cheap electric ink, at least) Blogs are niche publications on an insanely micro scale. That's all. They will not set the world on fire any more than any other form of publication did since Gutenburg's press (And i'd remind you that there weren't a heck of a lot of those around either, certainly not one per household).
They are fertile ground for journalists to plunder, however, since it saves them the trouble of doing any form of legwork to find opinions about anything they need. Simply quote stuff from folks with proper attribution and you're done. Maybe, if you're feeling frisky, you can even do it while in context or with permission from the original author, but that's not required.
2. Advancing Technology.
There's been a fair bit of traction regarding RSS/Atom/Foo and the impact it has on blogs. Oddly, i've never really thought of it as such. Instead what i see the benefit of this technology is that it provides a very light weight content notification system for web sites. Not all web sites update on the same schedule. i've got three lists of bookmarks that i usually load into panes every morning. There's the daily update list, a MWF sublist and a TTH sublist. Kind of a hassle. Throw in the various groups checks, news sites and other whatnot and there are any number of pages that simply don't change. Sure i blow past them fast enough, but if i knew i didn't have to load them, all the better.
That's where RSS/Atom really kick in. These are ways for me to pre-ping sites i like. If i wasn't to get more, then i get it. All the other crap about a unified blogging API, comment tracking, and what not? Who cares? That's fluff for 90% of folks that would use this.
Again, the fact that technology created to support the micropublishing facet is of greater use than the facet itself is not a bad thing. It's simply an inevitable path and one of the many outcomes of the fickle combination of technology and fate. Likewise, i'd even counter that technology created to defeat blogs (e.g. detecting a blog and giving it less weight in search results) is not a bad thing either. It allows companies to distinguish themselves from their competition and provide customers options on how their searches are conducted.
3. Blog Fundamentals
Despite what you may have learned from watching Doogie Howser and endless episodes of the Brady Bunch, not a lot of kids keep diaries, or keep them for very long. Why? They're a pain, and frankly, who really cares? Sure it's fun to look back on the various crises that filled our youth and reflect about how very, very wrong we were about "this is totally the worst day of like my life and stuff", but ultimately, they're dull.
i know because i tried it. Six months later i went back to read what i'd written and realized that i sounded just like the guy giving his summer report for the Cheech & Chong's Sister Mary Elephant skit. i pitched it . The world became a better place.
Blogs are no different, except that they're done in front of everyone. As i write this, i know full well that other folks are going to read it and it's become part of my permanent record. Future employers will {$searchEngine} for it, as will folks looking for reasons to blackmail me. Fine, let'em. i've said nothing here that i feel embarrassed about nor unwilling to defend.
Lots of other folks aren't so lucky. Still others don't feel comfortable either taking that risk, or imposing that sort of self-censorship on themselves, and that's fine too. Actually, it's very commendable of them.
So where are blogs going? Blogs are a valid form of self publication that carry less weight than traditional publications. They are a voice of celebrity, but not necessarily the conveyor of fame. Technological advances created by the blogging culture will probably become more important than the concept or content of blogs, and absolutely none of this should be new or earth shattering to anyone.
Still, sheep that we are, i'm betting that lots of bloggers comment about it.
e-baaaaaah.
